Angela Deaton's Blog

Happy Friday and Happy End of the Month!

Angela Deaton — Fri, 30 Mar 2012 21:22:30 +0000

As we close another exciting and great month out at our office I just wanted to take a moment to say “Thank You” for your business. Have a wonderful weekend. ~The Deaton Team

3 Ways to Use YouTube to Boost Website Traffic!

Angela Deaton — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 15:15:50 +0000

3 Ways to Use YouTube to Boost Website Traffic!
If you want to reach people, YouTube is an incredibly attractive environment. This video platform gets an impressive three billion daily views and claims to be the world’s second largest search engine behind Google and the third most visited website in the world. And lest you think YouTube is just for the likes of Miley Cyrus-Justin Bieber fans, you’re missing its powerful marketing potential:

YouTube gives you a great opportunity to drive traffic to your website.

Start thinking of your videos as mini websites whose goal is to get viewers off YouTube and onto your full website, where you can engage them with your business.

Traffic boosters can help you do this, and they’re all based on one crucial element: a compelling call to action. What’s most compelling, of course, is a free gift. It can be a free report, video, consultation or app that provides information or a service that delivers a real benefit to your target.

Come up with that offer, then tell people why they need to take advantage of it immediately. Craft a compelling call to action as enticingly as you can. Then use it with these three traffic boosting tactics.

Website Traffic Booster 1: End All YouTube Videos with a Call to Action

At the end of every video, insert your compelling call to action telling viewers how to get to your website and the benefit of doing it.
Example:
“Thanks for watching. To learn more, go to URL_example.com and get this exclusive new guide.”

Website Traffic Booster 2: Leverage the YouTube Video Description Box

When you upload a new video on YouTube, be sure to fill in the video description box. Start with a short call to action with your entire URL: “Find out more: URL_example.com.” This becomes a clickable link viewers see under the video. Then put in a short paragraph describing your video and end with another mention of your URL.

Website Traffic Booster 3: Use the YouTube Call-to-Action Overlay

This is a basic banner ad that appears in the lower third of the frame when your video begins. Even though it can be closed by the viewer, it gives you another chance to put in your call to action and a mention of the URL you want people to go to. You can even include a thumbnail image. To use this feature, sign up at: https://ads.YouTube.com.

Remember, to have your YouTube videos bring more people to your website, come up with that compelling offer and put it into a great call to action. Then insert your URL everywhere that’s available…. Enjoy a great month!

Inside Lending with Angela Deaton – Update! 3/26/2012

Angela Deaton — Mon, 26 Mar 2012 14:57:06 +0000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK…”I invented my life by taking for granted that everything I did not like would have an opposite, which I would like.” –Coco Chanel

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… The renowned French fashion designer certainly would have appreciated that while February’s Housing Starts were down 1.1% for the month, Building Permits bumped UP 5.1%, to their highest level since 2008. The housing recovery is full of opposites. In spite of that monthly dip, starts are UP almost 35% from a year ago. And before their February slip, single-family starts went up four months in a row to an 18-month high.

Continuing the theme of opposites, February Existing Home Sales fell 0.9% but are UP 8.8% over a year ago. And while the median price rose, a good thing, the supply also rose, not a good thing, but is still only 6.4 months. Friday, New Home Sales were off 1.6% for February, at a 313,000 annual rate, but the months’ supply is only 5.8, inventories are at record lows and the median price of new homes sold is UP 6.2% from a year ago, all good things.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Watch out for stress. When you feel it, just stop, relax and enjoy the world around you. Then focus that positive energy on new business and profits.
>> Review of Last Week
HOT, THEN NOT… Investors pushed stocks to the S&P 500′s highest level since mid-2008, then took their profits, concerned that global economic conditions are still worrisome. As a result, the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst weeks of the year, although the techie Nasdaq edged upward. The global negative vibe came from manufacturing indexes in China and Europe showing activity contracting in those regions. Not a great sign for our economically interconnected world.

Over here, the slight dips in housing numbers were a bit disappointing, although, as noted above, there was positive data as well, indicating real estate appears to be starting a recovery. Supporting that recovery is an improving jobs situation, as weekly initial jobless claims edged down to a multi-year low of 348,000. That number still needs to get way lower, but at least it’s no longer growing.

For the week, the Dow ended down 1.2%, at 13081; the S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, to 1397; and the Nasdaq went UP 2.2%, to 3068.

Bond prices were hammered early in the week, then benefited from the stock sell-off and the less inspiring economic data. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch wound up the week off just .01, at $102.12. National average mortgage rates headed up for the second week in a row in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. But mortgage rates still remain well below their levels of a year ago.

DID YOU KNOW?… According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there’s been a reversal of the trend toward more single buyers: 64% of buyers are now married couples, the highest proportion since 2001.
>> This Week’s Forecast
PENDING HOME SALES, Q4 GDP AND, OH YES, INFLATION… The only thing left after last week’s avalanche of data on February housing was Pending Home Sales. This measure of signed contracts indicates actual sales a few months out and a mild trend upward is expected today. Thursday, the Q4 GDP 3rd Estimate is forecast to remain in moderate growth range.

Core PCE Prices, excluding volatile food and energy, should remain within the Fed’s guidelines, although prices overall keep edging up. This, unfortunately, can also push up mortgage rates.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 26 – Mar 30
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Mar 26 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb 0.5% 2.0% Moderate
Tu
Mar 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 70.0 70.8 Moderate
W
Mar 28 08:30 Durable Goods Feb 2.5% -3.7% Moderate
W
Mar 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/24 NA -1.160M Moderate
Th
Mar 29 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 03/24 350K 348K Moderate
Th
Mar 29 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 03/17 3.385M 3.352M Moderate
Th
Mar 29 08:30 GDP-3rd Estimate Q4 3.0% 3.0% Moderate
Th
Mar 29 08:30 GDP Deflator-3rd Estimate Q4 0.9% 0.9% Moderate
F
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Income Feb 0.4% 0.3% Moderate
F
Mar 30 08:30 Personal Spending Feb 0.6% 0.2% HIGH
F
Mar 30 08:30 PCE Prices – Core Feb 0.1% 0.2% HIGH
F
Mar 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 62.0 64.0 HIGH
F
Mar 30 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Mar 74.3 74.3 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed has stated it wants to keep the Funds Rate low for quite some time, which is what economists expect. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Apr 25 0%–0.25%
Jun 20 0%–0.25%
Jul 31 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Apr 25 Jun 20 Jul 31

Congratulations 2nd Year in a Row PrimeLending Frisco Square chosen #1 Best Lender by Frisco Enterprise readers!!

Angela Deaton — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 17:01:09 +0000

ReadersChoiceLOGO 2012

Angela Deaton’s Power Tools

Angela Deaton — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 15:31:57 +0000

5 Ways to Dial Up Your Innovation!
As the marketing environment becomes more competitive, much has been written about the need for business people to innovate in order to succeed. But how does one go about innovating?

Contrary to popular belief, coming up with something new isn’t a bolt-out-of-the- blue experience. Successful innovators don’t sit around waiting for a new idea to suddenly strike them like lightning. The great inventor Thomas A. Edison famously said, “Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration.”

Here are 5 ways to work toward your next game-changing idea:

1. Stay open to new possibilities.

We’re all educated to be insightful analysts. This makes us great at seeing how things won’t work, makes us justify every idea we come up with and helps us focus on market needs, rather than human desires. Instead of looking for why an idea should be ignored, think of ways to develop it — turn it into the kind of mind-blowing innovation that will excite and delight your customers and prospects.

2. Be a hunter-gatherer.

Look for ideas and inspiration everywhere you — and your mind — wander. Some of the things you gather this way will eventually gel into fresh inspiration and unexpected solutions.

3. Maintain a positive attitude.

When we come up with a new idea, it can seem impossible to make it happen. Don’t be discouraged. Take the first step. When you come up with an innovative idea, you must be passionate, diligent and focused on what you have to do to bring it to life. Don’t worry about the ups and downs and holdups on the way to getting there. Drop the words “can’t” and “don’t” from your vocabulary.

4. Share.

When you come up with an innovative idea, share it with friends, colleagues and customers whose opinion you value. Bouncing ideas off other people can sometimes move those ideas forward at an amazing speed. You might want to use social media or a blog to engage customers in the process of developing your innovative idea.

5. Slow and steady wins the race.

Once you have your innovation to the point you want to introduce it, take it slow. Not everyone will be quick to see your brilliance. Take time with employees, customers and prospects to help them understand. Their enthusiasm will soon grow.

As you think about an innovative opportunity, stay focused on the inputs, not the outcomes. And good luck with dialing up game-changing innovations for your business…. Enjoy a great month!

This e-mail is an advertisement for Angela Deaton. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. © 2012 PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company. Trade/service marks are the property of PlainsCapital Corporation, PlainsCapital Bank, or their respective affiliates and/or subsidiaries. Some products may not be available in all states. This is not a commitment to lend. Restrictions apply. All rights reserved. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company (NMLS no: 13649) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of a state-chartered bank and is an exempt lender in the following states: AK, AR, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WI, WY. Licensed by: AL State Banking Dept.- consumer credit lic no. MC21004; AZ Dept. of Financial Institutions- mortgage banker lic no. BK 0907334; Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act- lender lic no. 4130996; CT Dept. of Banking- lender lic no. ML-13649; D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities and Banking- dual authority lic no. MLO13649; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee, IL Dept of Financial and Professional Regulation, – lender lic no. MB.6760635; IN Dept. of Financial Institutions- sub lien lender lic no. 11169; ME Dept. of Professional & Financial Regulation- supervised lender lic no. SLM8285; MD Dept. of Labor, Licensing & Regulation- lender lic no. 11058; Massachusetts Division of Banking– lender & broker license nos. MC5404, MC5406, MC5414, MC5450, MC5405; MI Dept. of Labor & Economic Growth- broker/lender lic nos. FR 0010163 and SR 0012527; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department- lender lic no. 14553-MB; NJ Dept. of Banking and Insurance-lender lic no. 0803658; NM Regulation and Licensing Dept. Financial Institutions Division- lender license no. 01890; ND Dept. of Financial Institutions- money broker lic no. MB101786; RI Division of Banking- lender lic no. 20102678LL and broker lic no. 20102677LB; TX OCCC Reg. Loan License- lic no. 7293; VT Dept. of Banking, Insurance, Securities and Health Care Administration- lender lic no. 6127 and broker lic no. 0964MB; WA Dept. of Financial Institutions-consumer lender lic no. 520-CL-49075. PrimeLending, A PlainsCapital Company is an Equal Housing Opportunity Lender. NMLS# 76783

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A HUGE CONGRATS!!

Angela Deaton — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 17:34:22 +0000

A HUGE Congratulations to our SIX incredible superstars from the Lone Star State to be honored in the TOP 200 Mortgage Originators in America for 2011 by Mortgage Executive Magazine. What an incredible honor for all the loan officers in America- for 6 of the Top 200 to be our very own PrimeLending family in Texas. All I can say is WOW and Congrats. I am simply blown away by your accomplishment.

• #32 Diane Clark $116M
• #86 Patrick Pittman $73M
• #88 Michael Addison $73M
• #98 Max Leaman $68M
• #134 Chris Nooney $61M
• #181 Angela Deaton $52M

More to come from Corporate as well, but I could not hold off on my recognition- I am so thrilled for you guys. What an amazing feat. To see more, visit the hyper link below.

http://viewer.epaperflip.com/Viewer.aspx?docid=54208ad9-e4a8-4b98-8344-a0010130dc8c#?page=4

Inside Lending Feb 20th

Angela Deaton — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 21:10:53 +0000

For the week of February 20, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 8

>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK…”Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.” –Kim Collins, track and field star

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… U.S. homebuilding is certainly following the advice of the first World Champion sprinter from Saint Kitts and Nevis. With housing starts registering a 699,000 annual rate in January, we’re still a good way from perfection, but continuous improvement is being demonstrated. Also improved were December’s starts, upwardly revised to 689,000. Best of all, the three-month moving average improved to a 697,000 annual rate, a three-year high. And single-family starts are up 16.2% versus a year ago.

New building permits were also up in January 0.7%, to a 676,000 annual rate. Versus a year ago, they’re up 55% for multi-family and up 6.2% for single family homes. Even better, the number of single-family homes under construction was up 2.1% in January, the largest gain since 2004. And there were 119,000 more single-family starts than completions in January, the widest gap in those numbers since the housing boom peak in 2006. Builders clearly are more optimistic.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… It’s important to stay optimistic. Every problem has a solution and you’ll usually find it more quickly by having a positive attitude from the start.
>> Review of Last Week
UP… The stock market went in the right direction, enjoying its sixth advance in seven weeks with the S&P 500 at a new nine-month high. It wasn’t clear why investors felt so good, as economic signals continued mixed. The Greek parliament approved austerity measures, but the situation is not yet resolved and there are other spendthrift Eurozone countries waiting in the wings. Good news over here included the above Housing Starts, plus weekly initial jobless claims dropping to 348,000. Although declining, this number is still not where it needs to be.

Then there’s inflation. Core CPI put consumer prices up a greater than expected .02% for January and up 2.3% year-over-year, their biggest gain since 2008. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) were up a fourth straight month, but lower than expected. Manufacturing showed surprising strength in the Philadelphia and New York regions, yet overall industrial production came in flat. Retail sales were up in January following a flat December, but car sales were stalled.

For the week, the Dow ended up 1.2%, at 12950; the S&P 500 closed UP 1.4%, at 1361; and the Nasdaq shot up 1.6%, to 2952.

There were small pull backs in bond prices as investors pulled out, hoping the Greek debt crisis would get resolved this weekend. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down only .06, to $103.10. The national average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage stayed at its record low level in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. Average rates overall remain historically low.

DID YOU KNOW?…The top reasons people are selling their homes is for job relocation, tied with a need for more space, according to the latest seller profile from the National Association of Realtors.
>> This Week’s Forecast
HOME SALES, JOBS, CONSUMER MINDSET… It’s a quiet week for economic reports but two big ones will depict the state of the housing market in January. Wednesday’s Existing Home Sales are expected up just a bit, and Friday’s New Home Sales are also forecast to rise, though still far below where they should be. We’ll monitor weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims on Thursday, and Friday brings the final read on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February.

The markets will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents’ Day.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Feb 20 – Feb 24
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
W
Feb 22 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 4.63M 4.61M Moderate
Th
Feb 23 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 2/18 355K 348K Moderate
Th
Feb 23 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 2/11 3.450M 3.426M Moderate
Th
Feb 23 11:00 Crude Inventories 2/18 NA -0.171M Moderate
F
Feb 24 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final Feb 73.0 72.5 Moderate
F
Feb 17 08:30 New Home Sales Jan 315K 307K Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Last week’s FOMC Minutes from the January 25 meeting revealed only one Fed member thought inflation would necessitate a rise in the Funds Rate before the end of 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%
Jun 20 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 Apr 25Jun 20

Angela Deaton — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 22:55:04 +0000

http___www.mediacenternow.com..

Inside Lending Message from Angela Deaton 2/13/2012

Angela Deaton — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:53:51 +0000

For the week of February 13, 2012 – Vol. 10, Issue 7

>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK…”People can alter their lives by altering their attitudes.” — William James

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE… People’s attitudes should surely be altered by new data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Their survey released on Thursday revealed four record highs hit by home building in 2011. The average size of new homes bumped up to a record 2,522 square feet, a record-high 42% of new homes had at least four bedrooms, 28% had at least three bathrooms and 30% included finished basements, all numbers up substantially over 2010. Countering this, there were a record low 429,000 single-family housing starts for the year.

But there’s hope. The NAHB’s chief economist forecast a 16% increase for new-home sales and single-family starts for 2012. He cited NAHB estimates of a pent-up demand for 2 million homes coming from households that are doubled-up or waiting to buy a home. Another NAHB sponsored survey revealed 78% of Americans likely to vote in the presidential election said owning a home was one of the most important things in their lives. They feel homeownership is about family and remains part of the American dream. Freddie Mac’s chief economist chimed in, “The desire for homeownership long-term is still there.”

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… What about your business makes you happy… and unhappy? The answers can help you discover how to motivate yourself and persuade others, since happiness is the universal motivator.
>> Review of Last Week
IT’S ALL GREEK TO WALL STREET… As of last Friday, Greek politicians couldn’t come to agreement with creditors on the latest bailout proposals. That was all investors needed to hear to start selling in earnest, sending stocks down for the week, ending five straight weeks of gains. Eurozone officials are threatening to withhold needed funds unless Greece agrees to austerity measures and signs them into law. The big prob? Political gridlock could take Greece closer to default, which might threaten U.S. financial institutions.

Over here, a light dose of economic data came in mixed, as usual. The Federal deficit for January unexpectedly dropped to $27.4 billion from $50 billion in December. But the Trade deficit ballooned to $48.8 billion. Initial weekly jobless claims dipped to 358,000, but continuing claims grew to 3.52 million. Finally, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for February fell to 72.5 from 75.0 the prior month.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.5%, at 12801; the S&P 500 closed down 0.2%, at 1343; and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1%, to 2904.

Bonds saw heavy selling pressure early in the week, but those Greek default fears helped prices recover a bit on Friday. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down just .08, at $103.16. Following the prior week’s better than expected jobs report, national average rates inched up for some types of mortgages in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. But mortgage rates overall remain historically low.

DID YOU KNOW?…This week’s Producer Price Index (PPI) is an inflation indicator for the wholesale prices of a basket of raw materials and semi-finished goods (but not services). It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
>> This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING STARTS, PLUS RETAIL, MANUFACTURING, THE FED, INFLATION… We’re back to a ton of economic data. Thursday’s January Housing Starts will grab our attention, forecast up a smidge, and Building Permits, expected a bit down. January Retail Sales are expected up, both with and without autos. The several manufacturing reads — Empire State, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Philadelphia Fed — should also inch up.

Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s January 25 meeting might reveal more on why they want to extend exceptionally low interest rates til late 2014. The festivities end with PPI and CPI inflation reads, expected to remain within Fed targets.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Feb 13 – Feb 17
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.8% 0.1% HIGH
Tu
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.5% -0.2% HIGH
Tu
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec 0.5% 0.3% Moderate
W
Feb 15 08:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb 14.0 13.5 Moderate
W
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.6% 0.4% Moderate
W
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 78.6% 78.1% Moderate
W
Feb 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 2/11 NA 0.304M Moderate
W
Feb 15 14:00 FOMC Minutes 1/25 NA NA HIGH
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 2/11 365K 358K Moderate
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 2/4 3.505M 3.515M Moderate
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 670K 657K Moderate
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 675K 679K Moderate
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Jan 0.3% -0.1% Moderate
Th
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.1% 0.3% Moderate
Th
Feb 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Feb 10.0 7.3 HIGH
F
Feb 17 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3% 0.0% HIGH
F
Feb 17 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
F
Feb 17 10:00 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Jan 0.5% 0.4% Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… On January 25, the Fed pledged to keep the Funds Rate extra low through late 2014. Economists expect no change near term. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%
Jun 20 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 Apr 25Jun 20

Market Update – Feb 6, 2012

Angela Deaton — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:00:50 +0000

>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK…”A story to me means a plot where there is some surprise. Because that is how life is — full of surprises.” –Isaac Bashevis Singer

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…”The Federal Reserve surprised the market last week by indicating that short-term rates were likely to stay at their current low levels until the end of 2014,” according to the Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist. He added, “Longer-term Treasury rates dropped… and mortgage rates for the week were down slightly.”

Freddie Mac’s chief economist felt rates had eased because “fourth-quarter growth in the economy fell short of market projections.” He did see “one bright spot… residential construction spending rebounded in December, rising 0.7%.” For the year, housing starts in fact rose 25%! Maybe that’s why the National Association of Home Builders’ Market Index rose from 14 in September to 25 in January, a 4-year high. Both new and existing homes are now very affordable, with prices at post-recession lows. Yet the home price decline since the end of the recession in mid-2009 has been a modest 3%-7%.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Have a clear vision of what you want. Success doesn’t just happen, you have to work for it. So make sure you know your goal.
>> Review of Last Week
UP WEEK… The latest surprise was Friday’s unexpectedly upbeat January jobs data. This boosted the Dow to its highest close since 2008, while the Nasdaq outdid that, hitting its highest level since December 2000 and the S&P 500 reached its best reading since last summer. The good mood on Wall Street came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report that nonfarm payrolls were up a greater than expected 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.3%.

Some questioned the numbers coming out of Washington in an election year, but no matter what your politics, you have to hope jobs will improve for the sake of the housing recovery. Another positive sign came with ISM Services, up greater than expected, showing growth for the sector with over 80% of the jobs. But ISM Manufacturing grew less than expected and the Chicago PMI manufacturing read dropped for the month. Also disappointing, Consumer Confidence fell in January after improving the prior month.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.6%, at 12862; the S&P 500 closed up 2.2%, at 1345; and the Nasdaq gained 3.2%, to 2906.

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls beat slammed Treasuries, but the mortgage bonds we care about held on well enough. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up just .02, to $103.24.
National average rates for some types of mortgages registered new all-time lows in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming mortgages.

DID YOU KNOW?…Part of the Treasury Department’s monthly budget report, the Federal Deficit is the amount by which government expenditures exceed tax revenues. The difference is made up by borrowing from the public by issuing Treasury Bonds.
>> This Week’s Forecast
TRADE AND FEDERAL DEFICITS, THE CONSUMER’S ATTITUDE… Last week’s avalanche of economic data is being followed by a light dusting of financial reports. We of course will continue to watch weekly Initial Unemployment Claims. Friday, the December Trade Deficit is forecast up a little, which is not the right direction, after which the Treasury Department gives us the read on the Federal Deficit for January.

In between the two deficit measures, we’ll check the pulse of the consumer. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February should drop slightly.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Feb 6 – Feb 10
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
W
Feb 8 10:30 Crude Inventories 2/4 NA 4.175M Moderate
Th
Feb 9 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 2/4 370K 367K Moderate
Th
Feb 2 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 1/28 3.475M 3.437M Moderate
F
Feb 10 08:30 Trade Deficit Dec -$48.2B -$47.8B Moderate
F
Feb 10 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Feb 74.0 75.0 Moderate
F
Feb 10 14:00 Federal Deficit Jan -$40.0B -$49.8B Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The week before last week, the Fed said its goal was to keep the Funds Rate super low through late 2014. No one yet doubts their resolve. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Mar 13 0%–0.25%
Apr 25 0%–0.25%
Jun 20 0%–0.25%